Bundesliga relegated odds & bets – who will be relegated in 2021?
Can Arminia Bielefeld and Schalke 04 prevent relegation?
In recent years, the fight against fate as a Bundesliga relegated player has always been more exciting than the race for the championship.
In the past season, half of the Bundesliga was involved in the fight against relegation or relegation.
In this season it could be similar, the Bundesliga relegated betting odds show the bookmakers.
Bundesliga relegated 2020/21 – The 4 favourites
This line-up also includes FC Schalke 04, which urgently needs to improve after the disastrous second half of 2019/20 and an equally bad first half of the current season in order not to endanger the existence of the club.
In the Bundesliga relegated odds, Arminia Bielefeld, Mainz 05 and 1. FC Cologne is also favoured for a second division ticket.
Low Bielefeld Bundesliga relegation rates due to lack of quality?
In the tough relegation battle, people like to talk about the basic virtues that make the difference between important victories and defeats. But what if the quality is simply not enough to collect the necessary points in a season?
We see exactly this problem with Arminia from Bielefeld, which in very few cases will certainly have to be accused of a lack of commitment or a lack of passion.
A comparison with SC Paderborn – the Bundesliga relegated from the previous season – seems to be justified, especially since the sports club always showed good approaches, but the bottom line was, especially in close matches, paid too much apprenticeship.
Ultimately, the SCP only collected 20 points from 34 games and ultimately had no realistic chance of staying up.
How did the second division champions fare in the Bundesliga?
2019/2020 1. FC Köln 14. 36/51: 69 / 5 points
2018/2019 Fortuna Düsseldorf 10.44 / 49:65 / 16 points
2017/2018 VfB Stuttgart 7. 51 / 36:36 / 18 points
2016/2017 SC Freiburg 7. 48/42:60 / 11 points
2015/2016 FC Ingolstadt 11. 40 / 33:42 / 4 points
In our eyes, at Arminia a lot will depend on how long the ascension euphoria can be maintained. The relegation odds for Bielefeld are currently quite low, as Arminia could not build up any points cushion at the start of the season.
Meanwhile, the fact that Greuther Fürth, a second division champion, had to return to the second division immediately in 2012/2013, serves as a positive argument.
In the past seven seasons, the respective second division champions have stayed in the Bundesliga. Usually, even placement in the secured / upper midfield jumped out.
Schalke represented at the top in the Bundesliga relegated betting
After the second half of the 2019/20 season ended without a win after the success at the start of the second half of the season (16 league games in a row!), Schalke was hoping for a new start for the new season.
It got worse. It started with a long legendary 8-0 in the opening game at FC Bayern and after 13 matchdays Royal Blue had only 4 points.
Even coach Manuel Baum, who was hired for David Wagner after the second matchday, has meanwhile also said goodbye.
Now, club legend Huub Stevens can try to turn things around. Schalke is currently looking for the fourth coach of the 2020/21 season. If that goes well, it would be almost a miracle.
With this squad, whose quality just doesn’t seem to be enough to not end up being relegated to the Bundesliga, it should be very difficult. There are also some other components why Schalke is threatened with a brutal fight to stay up.
Tactical deficits, weak defensive and offensive performances, as well as internal disputes, are just a few reasons for a Schalke descent in 2021.
The result is the lowest relegation odds for the four tested bookmakers before Arminia Bielefeld.
The weak second half of the season as a benchmark for 1. FC Köln?
In November 2019 Markus Gisdol took over the coaching position from Achim Beierlorzer in Cologne.
Gisdol was able to save “Effzeh” from relegation from the Bundesliga in the preseason, but will he succeed in this season?
The seemingly endless winless streak that started last season could soon cost him his job. The betting odds for a Gisdol dismissal are already very low – which is not very wounded: For a while, Gisdol’s expulsion was demanded louder and louder in Cologne.
Is it Gisdol’s sole fault? Despite one or two interesting newcomers and promising young talents, the “Effzeh” can certainly be placed in the lower segment of the Bundesliga table in terms of quality.
To make matters worse for the team from the cathedral city is the fact that the streak of victories in the meantime has increased the high expectations that are already anchored in the big city.
At 1. FC Köln there is, therefore, a great risk that the gap between reality and aspiration will grow wide.
Then it could happen that once the child has literally fallen into the well, it can no longer be saved. With regard to the question ‘Who will be relegated to the Bundesliga in 2021?’, Bets on the bilateral goat odds are certainly worth considering.
Does a Bundesliga relegated come from Mainz or Augsburg?
A season ago, it is almost a matter of good form to mention FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 when listing potential relegation candidates.
Neither the Fuggerstadt, who have been represented in the upper house for ten years, nor the Rheinhessen, who are already in their twelfth first division year, have been impressed by this so far.
There are many indications that this will not change in 2020/21 either.
While the FCA has strengthened itself well and can cite the calm within the club as a great pledge, the zero fives are something of a “little sleeping giant”, which fell far short of its own expectations in the previous year, but should have sufficient quality to Leaving at least three teams behind.
Only the question of whether Moritz Lichte is the right boss on the sidelines can be discussed. He is currently one of the favourites for the next coach release in the Bundesliga.
Another 3 hot Bundesliga relegated candidates
In addition to the four hottest relegation candidates traded by the best bookmakers, there are also at least a handful of other contenders who are eligible for the lower places.
Such as Werder Bremen, SC Freiburg or Hertha BSC.
Or does a team slip into the relegation swamp that you might not even have considered – like TSG Hoffenheim, for example?
Finally a carefree season for Werder Bremen?
People have become humble in Bremen. Of course, this has to do with the extremely fortunate relegation 2019/2020.
Despite all the loyalty to Florian Kohfeldt, it cannot be the claim of the former German champions to jump into relegation on the last day of the game with a runaway victory and to defeat a village club there – not disrespectfully meant – razor-thin.
The fact that Werder is quite capable of landing in the middle of the ranking became clear again and again.
If the green-whites can stabilize their own performance, the North Germans would not be among the top candidates in the Bundesliga relegated odds 20/21.
In our opinion, it is too unlikely that the men from the Weser will have another epidemic year in terms of injuries, which also explains the negative run of the previous season. Places 10 to 15 should therefore be feasible.
The relegation participants in the following year (Bundesliga)
2018/2019 VfL Wolfsburg 6. 55/62:50 27 points
2017/2018 VfL Wolfsburg 16. 33 / 36:48 2 points
2016/2017 Eintracht Frankfurt 11.42 / 36:43 5 points
2015/2016 Hamburger SV 10. 41 / 40:46 8 points
2014/2015 Hamburger SV 16. 35/25:50 1 point
In order to statistically substantiate our thesis, it is worth taking a look at the placements in the following year of those teams that mastered relegation via relegation.
Since the introduction of promotion and relegation games, no relegation participant had to go into second class a year later.
The greatest of emotions were HSV and VfL Wolfsburg, which landed in 16th place twice in a row, but never relegated.
Hertha BSC: relegation worries and left behind by local rivals
In Berlin, it’s not Union in its darned second year that is in danger of relegation, but the supposedly great Hertha. In 2020/21 it simply does not want to be able to convert the actually existing potential into points.
Also responsible for this is trainer Bruno Labbadia, who is slowly but surely running out of ideas in Berlin too. No wonder, thanks to investor Lars Windhorst it is an increasingly difficult area.
The many expensive transfers created expectations that a trainer – whether Labbadia or someone else – can hardly meet. It is difficult to blame the coach on the fact that these players do not perform at their best straight away.
Accordingly, Hertha can be found far below in the table. A Hertha descent no longer seems impossible after dreaming of Europe for a long time.
Potential bets on Hertha BSC are therefore worth considering due to the currently still comparatively high odds.
Bundesliga relegated: will SC Freiburg again?
SC Freiburg is actually always among the relegation candidates, although the longest-serving Bundesliga coach Christian Streich has his squad fully under control.
This was evident again before the 2020/21 Christmas break. The Black Forests got nine points from three games and catapulted themselves out of the basement into secured midfield.
In view of the high quality of the team, we see it as extremely unlikely that Freiburg will end up having something to do with relegation to the 2nd Bundesliga. The odds at the bookmakers clearly underline this impression.
The myth of the magic 40 points
Since the introduction of the three-point rule, experts and laypeople alike have liked to use the 40-point mark.
In fact, a team has never been relegated from the Bundesliga if they had 40 or more points in their account after 34 match days.
In practice, however, this brand is often not needed at all. In 2019/2020, for example, 32 points would have been enough to take 15th place.
Numbers games to the 40-point mark
On average, 34 points were enough to stay in the league
With 40 points the average was 12.4. place
The KSC went down in 1997/98 with 38 points – record!
In 2018/2019 29 points would have been enough to save him
What you should look out for in Bundesliga relegation bets
Which two clubs will have to start the bitter step into the second division at the end of this season and who will at least make the leap into relegation?
Numerous Bundesliga clubs ask themselves exactly this question year after year. A reliable answer will only be available after 34 match days.
If you want to bet on relegated Bundesliga players, you should ignore short-term trends. Two to three defeats in a row are completely normal in the table cellar.
Instead, it depends more on the fundamental quality of a team, which in most cases prevails.
Key facts – Bundesliga relegation bets
A team with 40 or more points has never been relegated
The relegation rate is significantly higher in year two after promotion than in year one
2012/2013 was the last time a second division champion rose again immediately
Accordingly, Paderborn was relegated last year, while Bielefeld is the favorite in 2021. The basic mood in the club always has a certain influence, as it was completely lost at Schalke in 2020.
The third important point is the experience of a team. Especially in the relegation battle, it is often important to play with players who are already familiar with the situation. So they can deliver better performance and avoid the Bundesliga relegation in the end.
If you combine all these factors in your personal Bundesliga relegation prediction, nothing should stand in the way of a successful bet.
