When does the ball roll at the European Championship? EM 2020 threatens to be postponed – when will the European championship take place?
Update: As expected, the European Championship 2020 will be postponed to 2021. The Club World Cup taking place in the summer of 2021 is expected to take place for the first time in 2022. It is not planned to change the host countries / cities for the time being. Now it has to be discussed what financial consequences this transfer of the European Championship will bring. A final tournament in the summer or winter of this year is now finally off the table
The corona virus continues to spread rapidly and has now almost completely covered football all over the world. The ball only rolls in a few leagues.
On Tuesday, following a short-term video conference with the member states, UEFA will probably announce that the 2020 EURO will be canceled or postponed. However, it remains questionable when the EM 2020 will be rescheduled.
It seems almost impossible that the first pan-European EURO will actually take place in twelve different cities on our continent this summer. DFL managing director Christian Seifert put the chance of being held on Monday at less than one percent. Accordingly, the only question that really arises is whether moving the European Championship to December this year or postponing the European Championship to the summer of 2021 makes more sense.
European Championship postponement: Russia comes into play as a substitute host
Regardless of the debate about a possible catch-up time for the European Championship finals, Russia signaled on Tuesday noon that it wanted to act as a substitute host. If UEFA actually decided to move the EURO to just one country, Russia would most likely be considered. On the one hand, after hosting the 2018 World Cup, the country has sufficient infrastructure and the necessary experience. On the other hand, as of now, surprisingly few people have been infected with corona in the largest country on earth.
In this case, those responsible for the European football association could even try to play for time and wait for the pandemic to develop in the short term. However, the fact is that the overall framework plan in Europe’s top leagues depends on UEFA’s decision.
UEFA decides on Tuesday to cancel the postponement
Only if Aleksander Ceferin, in consultation with his FIFA colleague Gianni Infantino, announces the relocation of the European Championship to a later date on Tuesday, could the leagues hope to resume play. Should June and July really be eliminated as EM months, the Bundesliga, if the virus allows it, could bring its current season to an end in summer.
What options does UEFA have regarding EURO 2020?
EM relocation in December
EC finals will be postponed to 2021
European Championship 2020 will take place in Russia
EM will not be relocated or canceled (for the time being)
EURO 2020 is suspended
Can the Euro 2020 take place in December?
Should UEFA decide to move the European Championship to December 2020, the most important question remains, of course, unanswered. Did we really get through the peak of the coronavirus crisis by the end of the year? A reliable answer cannot currently be given, although the probability of minimizing the rate of infection by then is logically higher than in summer.
In addition, the meaning of an EM event in winter can be critically discussed. While FIFA could at least refer to the mild, pleasant temperatures in the Persian Gulf when it awarded the November / December World Cup in 2022 to Qatar, the different weather conditions at a pan-European event or generally a rather bad weather for high-class football would amount to a distortion of competition.
Why does an European Champiosnhip postponement to 2021 cause problems?
Moving to the coming year seems more likely. Because there are traditionally no major events such as world or European championships taking place in odd years and the Confed Cup has also been abolished, 2021 would actually be the perfect alternative date for the Euro 2020. The only catch is the extended Club World Cup launched by Gianni Infantino and FIFA, which is scheduled to take place next summer for the first time.
The proud Italian would have to put his “baby” in the back and keep the period for the European Championship free. This would in turn involve considerable financial damage. At the same time, Infantino would strengthen its negotiating position and, at the same time, could demand that more European teams take part in the Club World Cup, which is likely to take place in 2022 or 2023.
What happens to the Club World Cup and the European Women’s Championship?
Another argument that actually speaks against a relocation to the European Championship in 2021 is the European Women’s Championship, which should receive as much media attention as possible, which could be problematic in a possibly parallel men’s finals.
Below we have summarized the three most likely scenarios in a pro / contra table and weighted them with subjective probabilities. If you are interested in the connection between probabilities and betting odds, we warmly recommend our advisory article.
Euro 2020 relocation – which scenario is most likely?
Euro 2020 will take place in December 2020 – 35%
European leagues can continue to play in the summer
EM 2020 could actually take place in 2020
Different conditions in the host cities
It is still unclear whether the corona virus was successfully contained in winter
Euro 2020 is postponed to 2021 – 55%
European leagues can continue to play in the summer
More time to fight Corona
The final tournament could take place in twelve cities as planned
FIFA Club World Cup would have to be deleted from the program
The women’s EM would lose relevance due to the parallel men’s EM
Russia steps in as the host 19%
European leagues can continue to play in the summer
EM would take place later this year
Relatively few people are currently infected in Russia
Russia would have to organize everything within a very short time
It remains to be seen whether the infection rate will remain low in Eastern Europe
Betting base conclusion: EM is postponed to 2021
After taking into account all the facts and the pro / contra discussion, we assume that the EM will be postponed to 2021. The FIFA Club World Cup, launched by FIFA, should only be a small obstacle, as should the European Women’s Championship.
In comparison to the unanswerable question of whether the fight against the coronavirus has progressed so far in December that a pan-European tournament is possible, the hurdles seem smaller and the likelihood is greater. In the meantime, we do not believe that the event will be held in Russia, since even in the largest country on earth, it should only be a matter of time before the number of infected people increases exponentially.
